Pre-tourney Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#37
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#33
Pace69.7#147
Improvement-1.9#266

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#34
First Shot+4.4#53
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#56
Layup/Dunks+4.9#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#303
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#217
Freethrows+3.1#10
Improvement+2.2#81

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#55
First Shot+3.4#76
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#45
Layups/Dunks+5.2#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement-4.1#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 8.9 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round47.9% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen8.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight2.8% n/a n/a
Final Four0.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 2.00.0 - 2.0
Quad 1b3.0 - 0.03.0 - 2.0
Quad 22.0 - 3.05.0 - 5.0
Quad 39.0 - 1.014.0 - 6.0
Quad 413.0 - 0.027.0 - 6.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 241   @ Montana St. W 101-71 88%     1 - 0 +28.1 +13.0 +12.3
  Nov 09, 2018 193   Hartford W 100-73 92%     2 - 0 +22.2 +11.0 +8.6
  Nov 13, 2018 350   Mississippi Valley W 94-59 99%     3 - 0 +14.0 +10.9 +2.6
  Nov 16, 2018 101   Utah Valley W 65-46 80%     4 - 0 +21.0 -8.9 +29.6
  Nov 19, 2018 35   St. Mary's W 80-63 49%     5 - 0 +28.4 +9.8 +18.1
  Nov 21, 2018 59   Arizona St. L 82-87 61%     5 - 1 +3.3 +1.7 +2.3
  Nov 28, 2018 164   Northern Iowa W 71-52 90%     6 - 1 +15.9 +1.1 +15.6
  Dec 01, 2018 80   @ UC Irvine W 89-65 58%     7 - 1 +33.0 +21.2 +11.5
  Dec 05, 2018 95   @ BYU L 80-95 62%     7 - 2 -6.9 +2.7 -8.5
  Dec 08, 2018 212   Weber St. W 76-67 90%     8 - 2 +6.2 -1.7 +7.5
  Dec 15, 2018 334   Alabama St. W 86-48 98%     9 - 2 +22.7 -1.6 +20.8
  Dec 20, 2018 15   @ Houston L 50-60 24%     9 - 3 +8.6 -10.3 +18.5
  Jan 02, 2019 26   @ Nevada L 49-72 31%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -6.8 -19.4 +14.3
  Jan 05, 2019 232   Air Force W 79-62 94%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +10.2 +11.4 +0.6
  Jan 09, 2019 72   Fresno St. L 77-78 75%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +3.2 +8.9 -5.7
  Jan 12, 2019 308   @ Wyoming W 71-55 94%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +9.7 +5.5 +6.2
  Jan 16, 2019 342   @ San Jose St. W 81-63 97%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +5.9 +4.5 +1.7
  Jan 19, 2019 163   Colorado St. W 87-72 90%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +11.9 +12.2 +0.1
  Jan 26, 2019 169   @ New Mexico W 68-66 80%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +4.2 +0.9 +3.4
  Jan 30, 2019 342   San Jose St. W 103-73 99%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +12.4 +14.7 -4.6
  Feb 02, 2019 156   UNLV W 82-65 89%     16 - 5 7 - 2 +14.7 +6.6 +8.0
  Feb 05, 2019 72   @ Fresno St. W 82-81 55%     17 - 5 8 - 2 +10.8 +23.0 -12.1
  Feb 09, 2019 104   @ San Diego St. L 63-68 64%     17 - 6 8 - 3 +2.4 +3.9 -2.1
  Feb 13, 2019 308   Wyoming W 76-59 97%     18 - 6 9 - 3 +5.1 +7.4 -0.3
  Feb 16, 2019 232   @ Air Force W 76-62 87%     19 - 6 10 - 3 +12.7 +5.7 +7.6
  Feb 20, 2019 169   New Mexico W 71-55 91%     20 - 6 11 - 3 +12.6 -2.3 +15.3
  Feb 23, 2019 131   @ Boise St. W 78-71 OT 71%     21 - 6 12 - 3 +12.4 +2.5 +9.5
  Feb 26, 2019 104   San Diego St. W 70-54 81%     22 - 6 13 - 3 +17.9 +8.2 +11.4
  Mar 02, 2019 26   Nevada W 81-76 52%     23 - 6 14 - 3 +15.7 +8.0 +7.4
  Mar 05, 2019 163   @ Colorado St. W 100-96 OT 79%     24 - 6 15 - 3 +6.5 +16.3 -10.2
  Mar 14, 2019 169   New Mexico W 91-83 86%     25 - 6 +7.4 +5.4 +0.9
  Mar 15, 2019 72   Fresno St. W 85-60 65%     26 - 6 +32.0 +20.3 +13.0
  Mar 16, 2019 104   San Diego St. W 64-57 73%     27 - 6 +11.6 +3.6 +8.9
Projected Record 27.0 - 6.0 15.0 - 3.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 8.9 0.0 0.2 9.9 29.5 31.5 21.4 7.2 0.4
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8.9 0.0 0.2 9.9 29.5 31.5 21.4 7.2 0.4